Pythagorean win-loss record sucks. And here is why…

I was going to do a post reviewing the month of April but no one wants to read that shit.  You’re a fan of the team.  You know how the month went. You can draw your own conclusions based on your own knowledge.  But while I was researching stuff for the scrapped post, I was checking out different sites. So when you go to the main sites like Baseball Reference or Baseball Prospectus, and you look for standings, you may as well be looking for the Dead Sea Scrolls.  Whatever happened to wins, losses and games back?  I’m cool with the RS & RA and the home and away records.

Baseball Prospectus Standings

The standings page for Baseball Prospectus looks like something you need a medical degree to read. And if you notice, they have the Mets in third place.  Why?  I don’t know really.  I’m assuming it’s because they predicted the Mets to finish third and they’re just going to leave it all as is.  So the first column has the teams actual records, the second column has their record that the experts want them to really have based on runs scored and runs given up.  This is better known as the Pythagorean Record.  Pythagorean record is Latin for worthless horse shit.  If it wasn’t dumb enough, the third column is the team’s record they should have based on the runs they should have scored or allowed based on their stats. So we’ve moved on from facts to legit fiction in regards to a team’s record.  And the 4th column is the team’s record based on their quality of opponent. Again, it’s all made up nonsense.  So, according to the sexless, the Mets should be 14-12 or 15-11 instead of 17-9.  But they’re wrong.  The Mets should be 17-9 because they are 17-9.

The rules of baseball summarily state that in order to win a game, you must score more runs than an opponent in the given 9 innings. If there is no decided winner after 9 innings, you keep adding innings until someone wins.  Nowhere does it state that you get more wins for winning games by larger margins. There’s no style points in baseball.  The Mets have won 17 of their scheduled games by scoring more runs than their opponent.  Games were managed based on the schedule, the weather and situation.  Sometimes a manager will play for 1 run in the later innings.  That doesn’t equate to luck.  It’s strategy and it really doesn’t mean anything in the long run.  Especially when they’ve had 3 losses by 8 runs or more.  That’s going to really hurt your run differential.  But you know what?  It was only 3 games.  Some days you just suck.

The Mets have won 17 games and you can actually say they underachieved. They essentially got zero production from 4 of their main hitters (Cespedes, Conforto, Bruce, Any of the catchers) and 2 starting pitchers (Matz, Harvey).  3 of their losses are games they had in their pocket but the bullpen blew for them.  So all these tools think the Mets record should be worse.  I think it should have been better.  That’s how the world works sometimes.  Eventually some guys will get rolling, and the runs will be more plentiful. The main concern of this team right now is the starting pitching. But regardless of what the virgins tell you, the Mets are 17-9, and in first place.

Tom

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